With MLB’s draft pick signing deadline set for 5:00 today, there are obviously several high holdouts that have yet to ink deals. In total, in the first two rounds, competitive balance picks included, there are 7 picks who remain unsigned. Considering the measures taken to limit bonus pool money, the fact that only three first round picks are unsigned indicates that something clearly is working here. Whats even more surprising is the fact that there are no high school first round picks who haven’t signed. But I digress.
This article will focus on the remaining unsigned first and competitive balance round picks in the draft. There are four of them. Without further delay, here they are.
1. Dansby Swanson, SS, Diamondbacks.
The first overall pick becomes the second straight pick to hold off signing at the deadline. But unlike Brady Aiken last season, whose UCL wiped out any chance of him receiving a top level bonus, Swanson is perfectly healthy, and has no incentive to return to school.
Why he will sign:
As the first overall pick, Swanson is perfectly capable of commanding the $8,616,900 recommended bonus that is the league recommendation. The Diamondbacks have a large enough pool to afford the deal, and considering the fact that all but one of their first 10 picks signed for at-slot deals, and their only other remaining major commitment is 12th rounder Wesley Rodriguez, it seems that the best way to say it is that all that needs to be done is figure out how much money they want to commit to him.
As of now, the top bonus in the draft belongs to #2 pick Alex Bregman, who topped out with $5.9 million. If all goes well in Swanson’s camp, and given the fact that the negotiations between them and the D-Backs camp have been more about evaluating his market, I could see Arizona following their trend and signing him at slot. Should Rodriguez who may elect to recover from Tommy John surgery in college choose not to sign, the D-Backs could afford to sweeten the pot by offering him even more. However, the verdict is this. Swanson will sign, and based on the positive lines of communication, he’ll be rewarded handsomely.
24. Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers
The first of two remaining unsigned Dodgers, Buehler was a solid starter and piece of the 2014 NCAA champions and 2015 NCAA runners up. Buehler at one point was considered the best of the three Vanderbilt products taken in the first round, but slipped all the way to the 24th pick.
Why he will sign.
This one comes down to two major factors: Who do the Dodgers want to commit their remaining pool money to, and how much can they afford to? In addition to Buehler, the Dodgers do have another first round pick and a 6th rounder who have yet to sign, but the chances that they sign all three are incredibly slim. Buehler had a decent season this year, even if he had to take a 2 and a half week break to rest during the season.
The Dodgers ideally would want to sign Buehler because he would further add to the arsenal of future arms set to take over the Dodger rotation in the coming years. Given that Buehler is a college pitcher, there would be a chance for him to come up as early as late 2016 or early 2017.
Buehler would be the Dodgers’ best chance to sign, and if it means that they have to commit what remaining bonus money under the 5% threshold they have to sign him, then they should, and should let go of their remaining picks.
35, Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Dodgers
Kyle Funkhouser at one point in the draft was considered the top righthanded pitching prospect in the draft, but a down junior season dropped his stock, and he tumbled all the way down to the 35th pick.
Why he won’t sign:
The way I look at this, Kyle Funkhouser has leverage that former potential top pick Michael Matuella didn’t have. A bad junior season? Fine, go back to school, see if you can rebound, and hope to enter next year’s top pick conversation. Matuella didn’t have that same leverage because of his Tommy John surgery and back issues, which would have prevented him from pitching at all in his senior year.
Funkhouser knows that he’s worth more that whatever the Dodgers can offer him, and given the fact that they spent their top picks on college pitchers, he likely views himself as the odd man out.
Admittedly, the risks of returning to school for a senior season are big. What if Funkhouser doesn’t improve? What if he’s only able to slightly raise his stock from last season? Since compensation for losing a first round draft pick began, only one player who didn’t sign was a collegian, and that was Stanford’s Mark Appel in 2012. Granted, Appel was able to move from being selected by the Pirates at 8th overall to the Astros at first overall, but his decision to return doesn’t indicate a trend.
The only way I see Funkhouser choose to sign is if the Dodgers elect to not sign Edwin Rios, their sixth rounder. If they do that, they could try and split the remaining threshold bonus pool money they have in the hopes of getting both Buehler and Funkhouser. Knowing full well that the Dodgers don’t want to be the first team to lose a draft pick for exceeding their pool, the chances of that happening are pretty slim. In all likelihood, it will come down choosing between Buehler and Funkhouser, and signs indicate Buehler is their first choice.
40. Nathan Kirby, LHP: Brewers
Nathan Kirby was a preseason favorite to be a top pick in the draft, but an ineffective junior season towards the end dropped his stock and pushed him to the CB round, where the Brewers snatched him.
Why he will sign:
An article on the Daily Progress’ UVA sports blog indicates that Kirby has decided to wait until just before the deadline to sign. For Kirby, going pro would be the best decision. The Cavaliers will be fine without him, especially with the emergence of Connor Jones as a staff ace. Plus, as a UVA product, Kirby has a chance to go through the minor league system quickly. The Brewers could use the remainder of the minor league season to shut down Kirby and wait until next season, when he will be fully healthy and ready to go.
Considering the Brewers have made no effort to sign their gamble picks, Justin Hooper, Donny Everett and John India, they could definitely allocate the money they have left towards a higher bonus for Kirby.
Like the majority of red-blooded Americans in mid-march, I find myself taking one day each year to fill out a bracket to determine who I think will become our next collegiate champion. But unlike my fellow red blooded American, I do not one, but two brackets. The first is the obligatory college basketball bracket. The second is the college world series bracket.
In both the college basketball and college baseball brackets, I share one common theme. I am a hopeless sentimentalist.
Though I have yet to fill out my own bracket, a task which I plan to complete the day before the tournament begins, I have already done it as a favor for my father, in a collaboration with my best friend. In the bracket, I managed to predict what would seem as unbelievable. The final four teams that I have picked are Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, and Georgetown, with Indiana and Michigan State playing for the final and Indiana winning outright. In this case, when asked if I was crazy, I acknowledged, yet again, that I am a hopeless sentimentalist.
Why am I so conservative? Does this conservatism extend to my college baseball bracket?
To answer the first question, I am conservative by choice. The highest upset I have ever predicted has been 12 over five. Anything lower than that has an extremely high probability of backfiring. I have no sympathy for midmajors, in fact, if I had the choice between my least favorite basketball school, Duke, and a successful mid major, like Butler, about 85% of the time, I’d pick Duke.
Why? I am a hopeless sentimentalist.
I picked Indiana to win, not because I have a man crush on Cody Zeller, not because my senior prom date is a student at IU, but rather because I have a fondness for the midwestern basketball. which is as old-fashioned as old-fashioned can be. Though I was not alive when Bob Knight had IU in its heyday, I was when he was disgracefully dismissed after the choking scandal. In a lot of ways, I wish that Indiana can win at least one more championship, like Kentucky did last year, or Uconn the year before.
Now you may wonder what this has to do with baseball. As I pointed out, for reasons as yet unknown to me, I fill out a College World Series bracket every year. And for sentimentality’s sake, I usually pick one of the old-school powerhouses to go far.
When California was supposedly in its final baseball season (which thankfully, it wasn’t), I picked them as a College World Series Team. What ended up happening? They ended up going farther than anyone would expect, finishing 1-2 in the first College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park.
Why am I a hopeless sentimentalist here? Quite simply, it is because California won the first college world series in the history of the event, beating Yale.
To put it in the simplest terms, I am a hopeless sentimentalist because I like tradition. I prefer to see the old-fashioned rivalries like Michigan-Ohio State, Harvard-Yale, Vanderbilt-Tennessee, and so on and so forth. So when it comes the time for me to put in my annual picks for March Madness, and then the College World Series, expect nothing but a rigid stand for traditionalism. And why?
I am a hopeless sentimentalist.